Crystal ball predictions: Primary election season


illustration by Andrea Nebhut, staff illustrator

It’s prediction time! The rules for the game are simple: One person, one vote. The candidate who receives the most votes during the March 6 primary becomes the party nominee, unless they fail to win more than 50 percent of the vote. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the primary goes to a runoff.

Think of this as a sudden-death overtime. The runoff election will be held May 22 between the top two candidates. To be clear, these are predictions of who I think will win; this doesn’t mean I support the candidate or want them to win.

Every office in the state is up for election this year. This means from governor and senators, all the way down to local judges, the people will decide their representatives.

How do you vote? If you are registered at Trinity, then you simply frogger across to Alamo Stadium and cast your ballot. If you aren’t registered to vote locally, then you better have requested an absentee ballot. That will be in your mailbox, in the Tiger’s Den.

Hope you still have that little business card from freshman year with your mail box number and combination! Time for the predictions.



The Republican incumbent Greg Abbott has had this race on ice. The only question is what number comes after 90 percent. I’ll throw a dart and go with 96 percent of the vote.

Democrats: Doesn’t matter, maybe the person who called Abbott a “neo-fascist”? If you honestly believe Greg Abbott is a neo-fascist you shouldn’t run for school board, much less something with actual responsibility.


U.S. Senate

Republicans: Ted Cruz will again receive the nomination, none of his competitors appear to be running a campaign seeing as I haven’t heard anything out of them. The question is how close to Abbott’s vote total does he get? Due to what occurred at the 2016 National Republican Convention, there was a possibility that Cruz would receive a serious primary challenger from the Trump lane or the moderate lane but neither seems to have appeared.

Democrats: According to my third-favorite Democrat, Alexander Perkowski, Beto O’Rouke is going to win and that is good enough for me.


U.S. Congress District 21

Republicans: This is the interesting race. Eighteen candidates go in and only two come out for the runoff. Last election cycle, Trump turned political science on its head, so this cycle it better start making sense again. Under this argument, Chip Roy should finish first come March 6. As you would know from my last article, he is endorsed by Ted Cruz and Rick Perry. This is where the trouble begins. There are many candidates who have a shot at getting second.

Democrats: Joseph Kopser has heavily out-raised the rest of his field so by any mechanism should win the primary easily. Still, the district is considered solid red so lets hope he spends some of his campaign funds offsetting his carbon costs as he campaigns into November.


Texas House District 122

This race comes down to Chris Fails against the incumbent Lyle Larson. Greg Abbott has come out in support of Chris Fails, which is highly unusual for a sitting governor. Larson is one of Abbott’s loudest critics. If it weren’t for the open CD-21 seat, this race would be receiving more coverage than it currently is. If it weren’t for that, conservative activists would have been able to focus their energy on removing one of the most liberal republicans from the state house.

However, congressional seats will always be prioritized over smaller, less important state-level races. Because of the incumbency advantage and the impossibility of a run off, I predict that Lyle Larson will win.

He won’t break 60 percent and it is very likely that Chris Fails and Lyle Larson will be running against each other come 2020. Chris Fails does have momentum coming from governor Abbott’s endorsement, though. I wouldn’t be surprised if Chris Fails wins, but if he loses he can largely blame it on running out of time.

The Democrats are not running a candidate in the district.


Texas House District 121

Republicans: Many candidates have spent a lot of money on this race attempting to replace Joe Straus. It is going to come down to one establishment candidate and one conservative candidate in a runoff. Steve Allison has been endorsed by the San Antonio Express-News, a newspaper that has endorsed Republicans in the past. This endorsement is enough to get him into my magic crystal ball prediction. On the conservative side, I can’t draw a line between the two.

Remember, this is coming from a crystal ball, and I will probably be wrong.