The Republican path to victory is based on the dated, fleeting assumption that Texas will always be red. In reality, Texas has been trending left for decades; Texas went to George W. Bush in 2000 by 21 points but went to Donald Trump by a significantly smaller margin of five points in 2020, showing a major decrease in just two decades. This year could be even closer, with Ted Cruz looking vulnerable as the Senate race between him and Colin Allred tightens to within the margin of error. All signs point to a blue Texas in the near future, potentially dooming future Republican presidential candidates.

That’s not to say that Texas will flip blue in 2024. Polls show that Texas will likely go to Trump on Nov. 5. However, the results from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections show that Trump specifically is sinking the Republicans’ numbers. Between 2008 and 2012, the Republican margin of victory rose by four points. In elections when Trump ran for president, the margin of victory dropped by seven points in 2016, then by three more in 2020.

This should be a cause of concern for the Republican Party. These sinking numbers reflect poorly not just in the context of Texas, but the entire nation. Trump is an unpopular candidate who further distances Texas from the Republican Party.

Trump isn’t the only candidate on defense in the Lone Star State. The senatorial race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred is a dead heat. Polls show Allred either closely trailing Cruz or tied, and as a result, Senate Democrats are investing in Texas. While still an uphill battle for Allred, this may be the closest a Democrat has gotten to unseating Ted Cruz. While Ted Cruz is an infamous senator, the fact Allred could unseat him is a sign that Texas, once reliably red, could draw money and resources from Republican campaign efforts in other critical states.

If you won’t take my word for it, consider the word of John R. Hermann, associate professor in the political science department.
“I have noticed that people have been talking for at least four elections, if not longer, that Texas is becoming purple, and the evidence is really strong to support that,” Hermann said.

“We are the youngest state in the United States … There’s going to be an incredible increase in Latinx voting. There’s going to be a significant increase in Asian American voting,” Hermann said. “They also are more likely to be first-generation individuals, so they may vote more Democratic than some other groups.”

If the polls, previous elections and demographic trends point towards a blue Texas, why isn’t the Harris-Walz campaign hosting massive rallies here like those in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan? Well, it’s just not economical for Harris.

“Unless she had confidence she could take over Texas from Trump, there’s no use. I mean, you’ve got to spend your money in Pennsylvania,” Hermann said. “Right now, the suburbs are largely Republican in Texas. … The urban/rural divide in Texas is well-defined with Democrat/Republican voters, respectively. So, it all hinges on Texan suburbs.”

It’s clear that Democrats still have lots of ground to cover to seize Texas, no matter how favorable the demographic trends look. Even if Texas stays red in 2024, Republicans will have a major problem very soon. Being forced to spend time and resources defending Texas could cost them other critical swing states. If polls showed a Democratic candidate leading in Texas, the American political landscape would shift overnight as both parties bend over backward to pander to Texans.

Texas is already shaking up American politics. With Allred within striking distance of Cruz and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton saying that Texas would’ve flipped in 2020 had he not blocked mail-in ballots in large Texan cities, national attention is slowly turning to Texas and the political fallout that would come with its swing. Every state in the country would be overshadowed by Texas, giving unprecedented sway to just one state in future presidential elections. I implore every Texan to register and vote. Regardless of their political affiliation, it will soon be the most powerful vote in the country.